A flat year so far for Gazprom's pipe flows to Europe

Gazprom’s exports were slightly down (-0.7%) in June versus the previous month but down a massive 61% versus the same month last year. Gazprom’s export volumes are staying in the expected range forecasted to be between 0.9 and 4.5bn m3/month. After the TurkStream maintenance (June 8-14), flows are back to normal.

Gazprom’s monthly gas pipeline exports to Europe

Source: Gazprom, Entsog, thierrybros.com

Split of Gazprom’s months gas pipeline exports to Europe by route

Source: Gazprom, GTSOU, Entsog, thierrybros.com

European LNG send-out was still 15% higher in June versus the same month last year.

EU LNG send-out (excluding Malta)

Source: GIE, thierrybros.com

EU gas storage utilisation 

Source: GIE, thierrybros.com

EU storage utilisation dropped to its lowest point (55.4% full) on April 7 (versus 25.5% on March 19 2022) and started July at 77.5%. 

The injection rate continues to accelerate; hence the required 90% filling target set by the EU should be reached in September. But this would be lower than the 97% reached at the same point last year. Europe will be ready for winter but not for any unexpected risks (cold winter, additional supply disruptions).

The statistical review of world energy published by Energy Institute on June 26 confirmed our March EU analysis: demand went down in 2022 versus 2021 by a record 13.5%, while indigenous supply fell by 7.2%.

Dr. Thierry Bros

Energy Expert & Professor

July 4, 2023