Why Additional Sanctions on Russia are Next to Impossible

Additional sanctions on Russia will probably never come into force any time soon. An embargo is even more remote, and this is for an extremely simple reason. Especially after the results of the elections in Greece, Europe has to save itself. This is why a strong stance against Russia is doomed to slip down the political agenda. 

Strong opposition to Moscow could indeed endanger the necessary cohesion to avoid the implosion of the European Union, in a moment several countries are questioning Germany’s dominance and putting forward their own requests. 

In this context, Kiev is likely to keep receiving more and more funds and “technical” support from Brussels, but a stronger political opposition to Russia is at very least improbable. The European Union will lean toward a kind of support to Ukraine that will not lead to a head-on collision between member states. But nothing more. At least in the coming months, in case of no further military escalation, Brussels will prefer a cautious approach. 

“The most important thing is that the European Union remains united” European Commissioner for Energy Union Maroš Šefčovič said on Wednesday, during a high-level workshop on energy security.  

The Vice-President of the European Commission explained that member states will be the ones deciding on Russia, adding that unanimity would be required.  

“The European Commission will accept the position of member states” he said, answering a question posed by a Lithuanian Member of the Parliament.

In this sense, the result of the negotiations that will start on Thursday are quite obvious. Countries like Hungary, Austria and Greece might vote down any proposal that would endanger their contracts and ties with Moscow. Šefčovič did not say it, but it is quite trivial: there will never be a consensus on Russia. 

The EU foreign ministers will gather for an emergency meeting on Thursday. They will speak about the worsening of the situation in Ukraine, but decisions are highly unlikely in that context. Eventual measures against Russia could be expected at the next summit of EU leaders on February 12-13.

The most likely scenario is that Europe will maintain the status quo, simply extending the measures  against Russia set to expire between March and July. Additional sanctions remain not realistic any time soon, as the recent events in Greece and Austria clearly indicate. 

GREECE: TSIPRAS

The freshly elected Prime Minister of Greece Alexis Tsipras had gone to Moscow several times, and kept strong ties with Russia. It comes as no surprise that the European Left’s candidate for the Presidency of the European Commission questioned a statement released by the European Council on Tuesday. 

‘In view of the worsening situation we ask the upcoming Foreign Affairs Council to assess the situation and to consider any appropriate action, in particular on further restrictive measures, aiming at a swift and comprehensive implementation of Minsk agreements’ European leaders wrote in the much-discussed communiqué.

Tsipras and his team commented the statement, saying the communication did not follow the standard procedure for ensuring the consent of member states. 

In a sense, the position expressed by the new Greek Prime Minister were in line with previous communications. Greece could try to use Russia, as Moscow could try to use Athens.

‘In his message of congratulations, the President said he is confident that Russia and Greece will continue to develop their traditionally constructive cooperation in all areas and will work together effectively to resolve current European and global problems’ the Kremlin wrote on Monday. 

AUSTRIA: OMV 

Greece is not the only country that could oppose further sanctions against Russia. 

Austria’s OMV and Gazprom sealed a deal for amended gas supply contracts on Wednesday. The two contracts decided not to disclose the contract details.

‘In view of strengthening their longstanding partnership OAO Gazprom and OMV (through its subsidiary EconGas) have agreed today on an amendment for the existing gas supply contract. The long-term contract has thereby been placed on a new footing that reflects changing market conditions’ reads a note released on Wednesday. 

Austria is taking advantage of the situation. And this will inexorably push Vienna towards a more conciliatory approach.

SO WHAT? 

Before any milestone diplomatic victories, the European Commission has to define its survival plan. Šefčovič’s remarks went down this line: first survival, and then (eventually) action. 

The Commissioner underlined the urgency of the situation, saying that Brussels has to do something, and that the current situation is unbearable. 

“I think that Energy security has never been as high in the agenda as now… Even during the Cold War, Russia has been more reliable than in the last years… We cannot accept this perpetual anxiety about our security of supply” the Slovak politician said during the meeting organised by the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe.

Šefčovič’s also explained that Brussels will soon come up with its strategy, which will be presented to stakeholders by the end of February. 

WHAT’S THE WAY FORWARD?

As already explained in a earlier intervention, the European Commissioner’s proposal hinges on five points: i. supply security, ii. single internal energy market, iii. energy efficiency, iv. decarbonisation, v. investments in research and innovation for renewable energies.  

Ironically enough, in a moment of tensions between member states and centrifugal forces in Europe, the solution of the European Commission is expected to be solidarity and trust. These points will require a strong cooperation between countries. 

“A change of the mindset from the national to the European perspective is necessary” the Slovak commissioner explained. 

Šefčovič concluded saying that the European level will be the final aim, but regional cooperation will be key transitory stages. Mentioning Nord Pool and the integration of Baltic markets, he pointed the way forward: slow continuous integration with no sprains. That is why, it is highly unlikely that European leaders will come up with a shared position on Russia. In that case, as shown by the case of Austria and Greece, interests are too divergent. 

Sergio Matalucci 

Sergio Matalucci is an Associate Partner at Natural Gas Europe. Follow him on Twitter: @SergioMatalucci