Like electricity utilities across the world, Origin Energy has a job on its hands to ensure it adapts and thrives in today's changing energy markets but it also has the challenge of a major investment in liquefied natural gas supply, made more difficult by the collapse in oil prices.

Last week chief executive Grant King used an investor briefing to explain how Origin is positioning its core energy market business to cope with flat or declining electricity demand, the rise of rooftop solar and increased consumer power choices, intense competition in retailing and depressed wholesale power prices.

But it is Origin's upstream gas production business that stands the utility out from its peers. The business enhances Origin's wholesale position in gas but it also includes its costliest and probably riskiest asset, the $24.7 billion Australia Pacific LNG project under construction in Queensland and due to start production in the September quarter.

Much of the divergence of analysts' views on prospects for Origin comes down to the assessment of prospects for APLNG, which has been four years under construction and is due to begin production in the September quarter this year. Target prices for Origin shares range from $11 to north of $15. The stock closed on Friday at $12.94, after ranging from $10.40 to $16.12 over the past 12 months.

Funding its 37.5 per cent stake in APLNG has pushed out Origin's net debt to a record of about $12 billion. Meanwhile, with LNG prices directly linked to crude oil prices, the collapse in the oil price is coming at an uncomfortable time. In April Standard & Poor's cut its rating on Origin to BBB-, the lowest investment grade, from BBB, pointing to expectations its leverage will stay "high for longer than we expected" because of its heavy investments and its decision not to raise equity to help ease the pressure. MORE