Azeri Gas to Triple in 20 years: IEA's Birol
Azerbaijan’s sales gas production is expected to triple to 55bn m3/yr in 20 years, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol told journalists Sep.9 in Baku.
Touching upon the Southern Gas Corridor, dedicated to deliver 16bn m3/yr to Turkey and the EU from 2020 and reach its final capacity at 31bn m3/yr in mid-2020s, Birol said that the project is very important for diversifying EU gas import sources. SGC will deliver 10bn m3/yr to EU in the first phase and the volume will double in the second phase.
In an interview on state television, Birol (see banner photo, courtesy of the IEA) also complimented Azerbaijan on the way it has diversified its future gas markets.
Azerbaijan’s gas production forecast
|
Year |
2000 |
2016 |
2025 |
2030 |
2035 |
2040 |
Average annual change |
|
bn m3/yr |
6 |
19 |
37 |
44 |
51 |
55 |
4.6% |
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2017 report; in billion m3/yr
Azerbaijan produced 28.56bn m3/yr gross gas (including flaring and oilfield re-injection) last year, of which 18.15bn m3 was sales gas.
In 2040, Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz stage 1 (SD1), operating since 2007 and currently producing 10bn m3/yr, is expected to cease production. Shah Deniz stage 2 (SD2), with 16bn m3/yr production projected from 2020 until 2045, will have reached the second half of its life in 2040. But other fields however are expected to expand output.
Shah Deniz is divided to three phases. SD1 contains 178bn m3, SD2 has 400bn m3, but the third and largest phase has 600bn m3 reserves and is expected to start up in the early 2030s. Its production capacity is expected to be more than SD2’s. Azerbaijan state-run Socar's vice-president for investments and marketing Vitaliy Baylarbayov has previously told NGW there is evidence of a fourth layer in this field at 8000 meters depth but that further studies and technology are needed for its exact evaluation.
Total is also developing the Absheron field with 350bn m3 reserves, with a view to produce 1.5bn m3/yr by 2020, but an additional 3.5bn m3/yr once it enters a second phase.
Azerbaijan is also studying or developing several other fields including Umid, Babek, Karabagh, Ashrafi, Bulla, Dan Ulduzu, Shafag, Asiman, Goshadash as well as the gas layer of Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil block with above 1.6bn m3 reserves in total.