The geopolitical situation for Russia and its energy giant Gazprom in the Black Sea region deteriorated sharply after Boyko Borisov became Bulgaria's PM, according to a Russian paper.

In a sizable article released Monday, the Russian "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" focuses on Bulgaria's importance for Russian energy projects in the Black Sea region.

The paper emphasizes the view that "none of the Black Sea countries could be deemed a reliable ally of Russia in the energy sphere in the long run."

It declares that if the South Stream gas transit pipeline gets bogged down by unreliable partners, Gazprom might have to opt for construction a terminal for liquefied natural gas (LNG) on the Russian Black Sea coast that could prove to be a good alternative of the much more expensive pipe.

Bulgaria's stand is seen as the main factor threatening the realization of South Stream.

"Even though the official statements report about the successful settlement of all issues on South Stream after the visit of the first Russian Deputy PM in Sofia in July this year, it is hard to believe that Bulgaria will become a full-fledged partner in the Russian project," writes the Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

It mentions several reason for doubting Bulgaria's honesty with respect to South Stream: first, Bulgaria agreed to go ahead with South Stream only after Gazprom started mulling an alternative route through Romania; second, Bulgaria is one of the most active participants in the competitive project Nabucco; third, the lack of perspective for construction of pipelines became clear from the Bulgarian stand against the construction of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline.

"All this on top of the fact that the previous Bulgarian government (i.e. the Stanishev government – editor's note) could not be called anti-Russian and that the oil pipeline is economically feasible for Sofia. So Bulgaria, the most important unit of the South Stream project, also remains its weakest unit," the author, Stanislav Pritchin, an independent expert, says.

He believes that despite all difficulties with Bulgaria on South Stream, Russia has no alternative because its ties with Romania are not close and are complicated by the geopolitical rivalry between Moscow and Bucharest in Moldova. He is convinced that Romania will not replace Bulgaria as part South Stream. At the same time, Gazprom would not consider Ukraine as a possible route for the pipe.

Turkey is also no better option for Russia, according to expert because, in spite of some similar positions at the moment, the two countries are geopolitical rivals, says the NG article.

"If the Russian monopoly is trying to penetrate the markets of Southern Europe by going around the traditional transit countries Ukraine and Turkey, Ankara is just trying to become a key gas hub for the EU, locking in on all exports from Russian, the Caspian states, Iran and Iraq. On top of that, Moscow has a bad experience in its relations with Turkey for another underwater pipeline, Blue Stream, which has been used at half of its capacity because of price conflicts among the partners," the author says.

He is convinced that South Stream, which might cost as much as EUR 25 B, is a risky investment, and cites estimates of RWE Supply & Trading predicting low returns on the investment.

The author is therefore a proponent of the construction of a LNG terminal on the Black Sea coast despite the strong international competition. This is supposed to allow Gazprom to enter new markers in Western Europe and even Japan, India, China, and the USA.

He believes that South Stream should not be compared to North Stream, which links Russia to Germany, because of the latter's several major advantages such as avoiding all transit countries.

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