Bulgaria in the Midst of Opposing Gas Strategies
The Bulgarian government has made strides over the past few months in its atempts establish itself firmly at the centre of the natural gas route game in the Balkans. It has nevertheless found itself in the uncomfortable position of being unable to accommodate diverging energy policies.
Energy Minister Temenuzhka Petkova recently met with the US representative Melanie Kenderdine. Ms. Kenderdine is the Director of the Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis at the US Department of Energy and Energy Counsellor to the Secretary. Both officials emphasized that closer relations between the two countries should be sought in the natural gas sector. The US side focused on diversifying Bulgaria's gas flows from Gazprom and emphasized that they will back up all policies towards that aim. Interconnections with neighbouring states was discussed, as well as the planned hydrocarbon explorations in Bulgaria's Black Sea coast and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).
This meeting contrasts with comments by former Bulgarian President Georgy Parvanov, who stated that the country is heading towards isolation from regional gas projects, citing the cancellation of South Stream. These arguments were opposed by Bulgarian Foreign Minister Daniel Mitov who placed the utmost importance on the Sofia-EU relations as a cornerstone for the energy security of the country in terms of future gas flows.
In the meantime, Bulgarian Premier Boyko Borisov opened up a channel of communication with France after his meeting with French President Francois Hollande and invited Paris to have a future stake in Bulgaria's plans, which include the offshore exploration by France's Total SA, along with Repsol and OMV for potential gas reserves in the country. Most importantly, the Sofia's strategy of creating its own gas hub with the help of France was touched upon as well. Exploration for potential gas reserves are planned to take place in the Silistar and Teres offshore blocks, however an exact timetable is not known. The drop of the world energy price index has hindered the effort of the foreign multinationals to speed up the process.
It is of interest to note that since the cancellation of the South Stream project and the exclusion of Bulgaria by Russia from the newly proposed Turkish (Turk) Stream, political and business life in Bulgaria is becoming increasingly polarized between "pro-Russian" and "anti-Russian" factions, a phenomenon easily recognizable by numerous editorials and media reportages by the competing groups.
Despite Bulgaria's sound state finances, it faces a chronic issue of wide spread poverty and social exclusion of a large segment of its population, while a mass migration movement over the past 20 years has resulted in a spectacular brain drain of its most qualified youth.
Due to all the above both domestic and foreign evaluators of political movements are fearful for a "gas-based political discontent" with clear geopolitical dividing lines.
Cooperation between Bulgaria and its neighbors though could produce productive developments, since all natural gas pipeline projects of regional nature to proceed, need an environment of long-term stability and continuity regardless of each country's clashing interests.