Canada's NEB Sees Natural Gas Growth

Canada’s National Energy Board (NEB), in its latest assessment of the country’s energy markets to 2040 released October 31, says renewable sources of electricity will grow significantly over the next 20 years and that natural gas and crude oil production, despite high-price discounts, will also continue to grow.

The report, released by NEB chair and CEO Peter Watson in Toronto, shows that hydro, renewables and natural gas will lead the growth in total electricity generation, while coal and nuclear generation will decline. Wind capacity is expected to double over the forecast period, while solar generation will nearly triple.

In its baseline reference case, the NEB says natural gas production will increase by 23% over the next 20 years, while crude oil output will grow by 58%. Improved technology to reduce emissions will help oil and gas production remain competitive in this changing environment.

But in a scenario with greater adoption of new energy technologies, Canada will use 15% less total energy and 30% less fossil fuels by 2040, the report says.

In the reference case, natural gas will supply nearly 6,000 petajoues (PJ) of energy demand by 2040; in the technology scenario, that use falls to just over 3,000 PJ by 2040 from about 4,500 PJ this year. Renewable and non-emitting sources, meanwhile, provide about 3,700 PJ of primary energy demand in 2040 under the reference case but more than 4,000 PJ under the technology scenario.