Coal 'A Tale of Two Worlds', as India Ramps Up: IEA
Coal demand worldwide grew by 1.1% in 2017 to 7,585mn metric tons (mt) following two years of decline, said the International Energy Agency’s ‘Coal 2018’ report published December 18. Stronger global economic growth spurred both industrial output and use in power generation.
Moreover, coal use is expected to grow again in 2018, with negative consequences for climate change. Researchers have estimated 2018 carbon emissions will rise by 2.7%, up from +1.6% in 2017. Phase out of coal-fired generation is a key policy goal, but the IEA notes that market trends are proving resistant to change.
"The story of coal is a tale of two worlds with climate action policies and economic forces leading to closing coal power plants in some countries, while coal continues to play a part in securing access to affordable energy in others," said IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori: "For many countries, particularly in south and southeast Asia, it is looked upon to provide energy security and underpin economic development."
China's coal demand rose by just 0.3% to 3,664mn mt in 2017 after three years of decline to account for almost half (48%) of global consumption. India's coal demand grew more rapidly in 2017, up 4.4%, to reach 942mn mt (12% of the world total), having grown continuously since 1974.
One out of every four tons of coal used in the world is burned to produce electricity in China; yet the IEA sees its electricity intensity declining over time, halting further growth in coal-firing post-2020, and leading to a small decline in its overall demand out to 2023 on the back of its clean air policies.
Worldwide coal power generation meanwhile increased by over 3% in 2017, enabling coal to retain its share of the global power mix at 38% after several years of decline.
Global coal demand will be stable out to 2023, the report forecasts, with declines in Europe and the US offset by growth in India and other Asian countries. By 2023 coal’s share of global energy mix is forecast at 25% (from 27% in 2017).