Developing Asia to Push World Energy Consumption 48% Over Next Three Decades

World energy consumption is projected to increase by 48 percent over the next three decades, led by strong increases in the developing world—especially in Asia, according to International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016), released on Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Rising incomes in China, India, and other emerging Asia economies are a key driver of the global energy outlook. "Developing Asia accounts for more than half of the projected increase in global energy use through 2040." said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. "This increase will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets." Clean energy technologies play an important role in the outlook, with renewables expected to be the fastest-growing energy source.

IEO2016 presents updated projections for world energy markets through 2040.

World energy use is projected to increase from 549 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2010 to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040. The increase mainly occurs in the developing world, driven by long-term growth in economies and populations. Non-OECD Asia, primarily China and India, accounts for 55 percent of this rise in energy usage.

IEO2016 projects renewables as the world's fastest-growing energy source—increasing by 2.6 percent per year through 2040—but fossil fuels still supply more than three-quarters of world energy use. Although petroleum and other liquids remain the largest source of energy, the liquid fuels share of world marketed energy consumption falls from 33 percent in 2012 to 30 percent in 2040.

Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Global natural gas consumption is likely to grow by 1.9 percent per year. Demand growth in China is expected to average 6.2 percent during the period. In India, the annual average growth rate is projected at 3.2 percent during 2012-2040.

Abundant natural gas resources and robust production—including rising supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane—contribute to the strong competitive position of natural gas. Coal is the world's slowest-growing energy source, rising by 0.6 percent per year through 2040. By 2030, natural gas surpasses coal to become the world's second-largest energy source after liquid fuels.