DNV Sees Rising LNG Role, as Both Fuel and Cargo, In Global Fleet
Ship classification group DNV GL has published its ‘Maritime Forecast to 2050’ in Hamburg which analyses the forecast impact of the changing global energy system on the shipping industry. It foresees the role of LNG, both as a fuel and type of cargo, increasing over the next three decades.
The world’s shipping fleet consumed 256mn metric tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) of marine fuel per year in 2015, it says. In its maritime forecast, published December 20, shipping is expected to enjoy robust growth out to 2030, but that from then until 2050 demand will increase less rapidly. Demand for liquid fuels (heavy fuel oil, marine diesel, LNG and biofuels) in shipping nonetheless would reach 276mn mt by 2050, on top of which 110 TWh of electricity will be needed.
Fuel mix: gas to grow
Looking at the global shipping fleets’ fuel mix, the DNV GL forecast says that oil use will decline to only 47% of marine fuel by 2050, whereas gas/LNG’s share will increase to 32%, becoming the second most important maritime fuel, and equally important in both deep sea and short sea shipping.
DNV GL’s business director for maritime Gerd Wursig told a briefing in Hamburg December 19 there are 118 LNG-fuelled ships in operation (half of which in Norway), as at December 1 2017, with a further 121 on order (half in Europe/Norway); the share ordered by the Americas and Asia and for global trade though is rising; the figures exclude LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels.
Among LNG-fuelled ships on order, Wursig pointed to 21 container and 14 cruise ships that will scale up demand for LNG, simply because of their demand and global range. (The vessel shown above, photo by the author, is one of two car carriers belonging to UECC already operating; a further two have been ordered by rival Siem Car Carriers).
Types of cargo changing
DNV GL's overall maritime forecast expects that, in terms of cargo transported, coal will trail off first, then crude oil, then oil products – with global oil and oil products trade reaching peaks before 2030.
In contrast, increased volumes of LNG cargo will be transported. “Global gas consumption will decline after 2035, but growth in seaborne gas trade will be sustained as demand shifts to areas with less domestic gas and many new sources of unconventional gas are not connectable by pipelines,” the report says.
It expects high demand growth for LNG tankers to see its fleet size double by 2030 but then slip back for a total increase of 146% by 2050, relative to now.
The forecast also expects improved energy efficiency due to technical and operational improvement (including speed reduction) will see fuel use per metric ton-mile reduce by 35–40% out to 2050 generally, with largest reductions coming in the container, LNG, and other cargo segments.