When Geopolitical Interests Clash With Economic Needs– The Case of Ukraine
The Russia-Europe jigsaw will take time to unravel, as the European slow approach reflects clashing interests of various natures. Economy and diplomacy are the two main factors leading the game, but the most interesting aspect is that the European Union is looking for solutions probably more in line with Russia than with the United States. In short, confusion is the main message coming from an international conference on European energy policy held in Bruges on Thursday.
To make it even more complicated, Turkey was said to potentially turn out to be an equally important player of this Sudoku in the near future. In this sense, while international delegations were shouting out loud their resolutions in Bruges, the solution seemed pushed even further. Given the difficulties, the standoff over Ukraine could be very difficult to solve, despite the good intentions.
GEOPOLITICAL DIMENSION
“We want to promote international and regional cooperation rather than confrontation,” said Dominique Ristori, Director General of Directorate-General Energy (ENER), during the conference What future(s) for European Energy Governance?.
Russian positions were not that different. A delegation from Moscow converged with European positions, saying that cooperation is the top priority.
“Today we are focused on promoting Russia-EU cooperation for the benefit of both parts,” Russia’s Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov said during the conference organized by the College of Europe, adding that the West is trying to shift the attention from Ukraine's huge debt to an irrelevant over-reliance of Europe on Russian gas.
On the other hand, some European voices challenged Chizhov’s opinions. Arguing that dependence on gas supplies translates into diplomatic weakness, several panellists said that Europe has to intervene as soon as possible to decrease energy dependency on Russia.
“We don’t think it is artificially created,” Susanne Niese, Head of Unit Energy Policy Power Generation at Eurelectric, said referring to Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. She also explained that solutions have to be taken centrally, for the entire Continent, moving away from country-based decisions. The creation of a fully integrated has been her clear suggestion.
In this sense, the conference’s different voices and opinions clearly indicated that interests are divergent. During the conference gathering representatives of European Union, Russia, Turkey and China, delegates made clear that it is not just a matter of geopolitical drivers. It emerged that geopolitical dimensions are overlapping, sometimes opposing, the economic rationale. Reality is not just two folded, it is multi folded. The current situation is like a Rubik’s cube.
ECONOMIC DIMENSION
Turkish Deputy Energy Minister of Energy and Natural Resource Hasan Murat Mercan confirmed that the situation is quite complex.
“We don’t have a clear picture, we can just speak about trends,” said before saying something that no Europeans would have liked to hear.
“There will be a shift from West to East and due to these imbalances jobs will be lost in OECD countries,” he said, explaining that energy issues require strong political approaches that combine economics and politics.
But these problems for Europe would not come without any additional complications. As said by Chizhov, the US could easily send its shale gas to Asia rather than to Europe. If Washington wants to preserve its competitive advantage over Europe, LNG export liberalization could turn out to be slow and fragmented.
“Today there is no global market for gas, there are just regional markets,” underlined Chizhov during the conference.
FINAL MESSAGE
All in all, it has been evident that Ukraine is not fighting for its own freedom. In Ukrainian streets, citizens of the two parts are also carrying on with a confrontation that reflects complex interests.
It is not just a matter of blocs. It is not just about the East and the West. While on a geopolitical level Europe is converging with the United States, on an economic level European interests are more compatible with Russian needs. The possible way out could be the emergence of arbitrators, countries trying to make different interest converge. What is sure though is that there are quite a few countries interested in doing so. As the presence of a Chinese delegation proves, Beijing is probably trying to make its way, but Turkey remains in pole positions. But also through this mediation, it would remain a hard game.
Sergio Matalucci