The Conversation: Energy trade between Europe and Russia will depend on trust

Much of the discussion on the current Ukraine crisis concerns European energy security and dependence on Russian gas. The different reactions of EU member states to the Ukraine crisis highlight an underlying issue that influences the security and cost of gas – trust. Without an understanding of trust in commercial and political relations, it is difficult to explain the variation of reactions to the Ukraine crisis and the significance of Russia’s actions on future gas relations.

Trust is the reason why reactions range from building European gas independence from Russia, in the case of the Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski’s impassioned recommendation, to a more cautious wait-and-see approach from the German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. This is not to say that technical and economic constraints such as pipelines and interdependence don’t matter. European energy trade with Russia begins with shared interests, but trust can enhance or inhibit cooperation.

Trust shapes the preferences for actors to engage in trade in the first place. Trust influences reactions to disputes and supply disruptions like the one that happened in 2005, and it shapes the parameters of energy security policy. Although trust is needed for all trade activity, it is particularly pronounced in energy, and gas above all. The reason for this is threefold: the huge costs of extracting gas, the interdependency they create between the parties involved and the lack of robust international institutions to govern relations.  MORE