Argus: Ukraine dispute cuts EU supply by over 20bn m³

Lower Russian gas exports this winter — with state-controlled Gazprom not meeting some customers' nominations until 6 March — and brisk reverse flows to Ukraine curbed European supply this winter by over 20bn m³ year on year.

Aggregate Russian flows to western Europe — through Nord Stream, at Mallnow, and the Ukraine-Slovakia border — dropped to 193mn m³/d on 1 October-5 March from 306mn m³/d a year earlier. This resulted in cumulative receipts of 30.2bn m³ over the period, down from 47.7bn m³ a year earlier.

The decrease in Russian deliveries was largely driven by flows below nominations, although there was some incentive for buyers to cut their receipts from Gazprom in the first quarter. Russian exports dropped sharply in the fourth quarter despite oil-indexed prices being lower in the second half of 2014 than earlier in the year encouraging buyers to load their Russian take to July-December.

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