ISN ETH Zurich: Russian Gas, European Integration and the Fate of Ukraine
Ukraine finds itself with a dilemma. If the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement (AA) is not signed and ratified soon, another chance is unlikely to arise for a generation or more. At the same time, separate negotiations have yet to determine whether Ukraine’s gas transit system (GTS) will be administered by a bilateral consortium with Russia or a trilateral one with European Union (EU) participation. Accordingly, the final outcome of this decision - which is not Ukraine’s alone and would involve upgrading and modernizing the GTS – also has the potential to influence Kiev’s negotiations with the EU.
Background to a stand-off
The EU has officially stated on numerous occasions the three issues that must be addressed for the negotiations to have a positive outcome. Of these, the highest-profile and best known is the release of imprisoned former prime minister and presidential candidate Yuliya Tymoshenko. However, Ukraine's ambassador to the EU has rejected any preconditions for the signature of the AA. As a result, everything still hangs in the balance and is the context for the more technical, but still political, negotiations over the sensitive future of Ukraine’s GTS for natural gas from Russia to Europe.