Eurogas Points to 2017 EU Demand at 7-Year High
European gas supplier association Eurogas said April 5 it is pleased to see that the results of its annual forecast on gas demand, issued in November 2017, came very close to the official data in the European Commission's Quarterly Report on European Gas Markets.
The latter, released March 23 2018, showed that EU gas consumption increased by 6% to 491bn m3 in 2017, reaching its highest level since 2010.
Eurogas had forecast that EU gas demand in 2017 would rise by 5.9% to 488.9bn m3 on the basis of the results of its annual survey amongst member companies that cover 84% of the EU gas market.
The Commission's data also showed that EU gas imports at around 360bn m3 were 10% higher than in 2016, supported by a combination of increasing consumption and falling indigenous production, that Russia increased its share of extra-EU imports from 42% in 2016 to 43% in 2017, while Norway's remained constant at 34% (despite its export volume rising by 9%), and Algeria/Libya pipeline exports' share fell to 10%, from 11% in 2016. The data also noted that EU producer Netherlands became a net importer of gas on an annual basis for the first time ever in 2017.
LNG in full year 2017 - roughly 12% of EU gas imports - came mainly from Qatar (41%), followed by Nigeria 19%, Algeria 17%, Peru and Norway 7% each, the US 4% and Trinidad 3%.
For the last three years, Eurogas statistics have seen gas demand growth rates between 4% and 7% which it said "confirms a steady trend, which is driven not only by the heating and cooling sector, but also by larger use of gas in power generation and transport. As the economy is picking up, industry may be driving demand, too." Its secretary general Beate Raabe said "Eurogas sees a positive future for gas in Europe. Gas and its network have a strong role to play in the cost-effective decarbonisation of Europe's energy mix."
"In the long term, Eurogas sees potential in the enrolment of renewable and decarbonised gases, such as biogas, hydrogen or synthetic gas from power-to-gas processes," she added: "A scenario study, carried out for Eurogas by E3MLab on the basis of the PRIMES model, showed that gas demand levels in the EU would still be important in 2050. In the renewable gas scenario, gas demand is 460bn m3 in 2050, 70% of which is renewable gas. The results of the scenario study will be published in May."
In response to a NGW request about when this spring it would publish its provisional EU gas demand statistics for 2017, the association replied last month: "Eurogas will no longer issue the statistical report." For many years, Eurogas typically issued provisional estimates for EU gas consumption in March, followed by a more definitive report in the autumn.