International Policy Digest: Europe’s Addiction to Russian Natural Gas to Continue

Over the past year, many have clamoured for the EU to reduce its energy reliance on an increasingly revanchist Russia. As approximately 30% of its natural gas imports stem from Russia, it seems logical that the EU should lower its dependence on Moscow. Russia does not enjoy a steadfast export reputation, as it has a history of cutting off supplies to neighbors. However, there is little evidence that the EU can significantly limit its Russian energy imports in the foreseeable future.

With EU near-term consumption expected to rise slightly, and internal production set to decline, there is little room for Europe to manoeuvre. Moreover, cutting Russian imports while adding to the EU’s already significant reliance on Norway or Algeria does little to aid the cause of diversification. Just because Russia is a thorny trading partner today, does not prevent another nation from assuming that role in the future.

Even if Norway is viewed as a stable friend of the EU, it has limited scope to diminish the influence of Russian energy. At present all Baltic countries and Finland are utterly dependent on Russian gas: a further nine EU members also obtain more than 50% of their supplies from Russia.

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