Europe to produce 12% more gas by 2030: DNV
DNV predicts that Europe will be producing 12% more natural gas by 2030 than it is now, as the industry reacts to higher prices and the EU's planned phase-out of Russian gas, the Norwegian consultancy said in a report published on April 5.
Gas prices are soaring in Europe, as a result of a strong recovery in demand following the coronavirus pandemic and underinvestment in supply. The European Commission has also launched a plan to cut Russian gas imports by two thirds by the end of this year in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, and reduce them to zero by 2030. However, the plan hinges on reductions in demand and increased LNG imports, rather than a growth in European gas production.
In contrast, DNV expects gas production in northeast Eurasia, namely Russia, to drop by 24% by 2024, as a result of the EU limiting imports. Russia is looking to replace the lost revenue by expanding its exports to China, although the infrastructure is not currently in place to achieve this.
Russia currently delivers gas to China via the Power of Siberia, which is working up to its full capacity of 38bn m3/year, and also ships LNG to the Chinese and other Asian markets from its Yamal LNG and Sakhalin liquefaction plants. But new transmission lines and export terminals to deliver supplies from Russia's largest fields in northwest Siberia to Asia will take years to build, DNV said.