FT: Don’t bet against a winter gas crisis in Europe

Marcos Sefcovic, the new European Commission vice-president responsible for energy, was in optimistic mood last week when he predicted a winter without any disruption to gas supplies from Russia. In truth, the trilateral agreement on gas signed by Russia, Ukraine and the European Union in Brussels five weeks ago has yet to be tested and the underlying tensions that made the agreement necessary are far from resolved.

Ukraine and Russia remain in a state of undeclared war and this week’s manoeuverings over the proposed South Stream pipeline show that Russia’s desire for a controlling influence over the European energy market is undiminished. To imagine that Vladimir Putin will refrain from playing the energy card as demand for Russian gas reaches its annual peak requires a bold leap of faith, especially since he has just cut off coal supplies to Ukraine.

In the Putin world-view, energy has always been about politics rather than economics. In 1999, when he was still Russia’s intelligence chief, he published a thesis in an obscure academic journal calling for an energy policy “aimed at furthering the geopolitical interests and maintaining the national security of Russia.” He has pursued that vision ever since, shaping energy policy with two clear goals in mind.
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