Europe’s extraordinary good fortune with winter weather: Kemp
LONDON, April 18 (Reuters) - Europe was doubly fortunate with the weather this winter - the whole northern hemisphere was warmer than normal but the greatest anomaly was concentrated in the region - helping reduce gas consumption and prices.
Land temperatures across the northern hemisphere were +2.02°C higher than the long-term average (1901-2000) between October and March.
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For the hemisphere as a whole, it was the fifth-warmest winter on record, based on data compiled by the U.S, National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
But Europe’s temperatures were +2.42°C above the long-term average, making it the second-warmest winter ever recorded in the area.
The months of October and January were the warmest on record; November was the fourth warmest; and December the eighth warmest.
By contrast, Asia’s winter temperatures were +2.07°C warmer over the six months as a whole and North America’s temperatures were only +1.23°C above the long-term seasonal average.
In recent decades, temperatures have been trending higher across the whole hemisphere but the impact has been especially pronounced across the Eurasian landmass.
Facing pressure on gas and electricity supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s gas and electricity consumption was suppressed in large part by warm weather, helping stretch gas inventories and avoid shortages.
Next year it might not be so lucky. Statistically, the region must expect next winter to be colder – which means it will likely use more gas with more pressure on inventories and supplies.
Europe’s policymakers, businesses and households were extraordinarily fortunate this winter; that should not make them complacent about winter 2023/24.