Europe's Spot Prices Ease, Concerns Recede
Spot gas prices have eased across Western Europe, as lower demand over the weekend and the onset of forecast milder weather next week combine to ease supply concerns.
At close of trading March 2, UK-NBP gas for day-ahead (gas on the next weekday, March 5) had eased to £0.84/therm ($11.55/mn Btu).
On March 1, NBP day-ahead gas (for delivery March 2) had settled at £2.25/th ($31.14/mn Btu). That means latest prices are about one-third of the previous day's levels, and roughly back to levels traded February 27. But they still have some way to fall before they are back at week-ago levels or mid-February levels..
Dutch TTF day-ahead at close March 2 likewise eased to settle at €30.388/MWh ($10.86/mn Btu), having the previous day settled at €85/megawatt-hour of gas ($30.40/mn Btu).
Day-ahead at other continental gas hubs eased by a broadly similar amount, with Germany’s NCG at €30.225, Peg Nord €30.175 with southern French ‘TRS’ hub was fifty eurocents above that, and Italy’s PSV hub €32.35 (all per MWh gas) at the March 2 close.
National Grid meanwhile said actual demand in Great Britain on gas day March 1 ended up as 418mn m3, its highest daily figure for six years and even higher than it had forecast during the day. In contrast, GB gas demand for gas day March 2 is forecast at 401.3mn m3 – with supply flows slightly exceeding that figure -- and March 3 (Saturday) demand at 351mn m3. Consumption usually dips at the weekend as most factories close.
NGrid withdrew early March 2 the ‘Gas Deficit Warning’ that it had posted 24 hours earlier but continued to urge shippers at 10.14am GMT March 2 to post any offers of supply or demand-reduction onto the On-the-Day Commodity Market (OCM).
France's main gas grid GRTgaz also withdrew a red alert in respect of national balancing March 2, but maintained an amber alert over stocks and low sendout rates at Fos LNG terminals in southeast France both for that day and March 5.