Gas Rises Fast in ExxonMobil's Outlook
Gas is expected to meet about 40% of the additional energy demand globally by 2040 and demand for the fuel will increase by half, according to ExxonMobil's latest Outlook for World Energy.
The US major foresees global energy demand rising by a quarter between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion.
In its just published 2016 edition, it says energy efficiency gains, more renewable energy sources and lower-carbon fuels, such as gas, are expected to help to halve the carbon intensity of the global economy over that period, despite the world's population rising by about 2bn and emerging economies continuing to expand significantly.
Most growth in energy demand will occur in developing nations that are not part of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the outlook predicts. Per capita income in those countries is likely to increase by 135%, it says.
Nuclear and renewable energy sources – mainly bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind, and solar – are also likely to account for nearly 40% of the growth. By then, they are expected to make up nearly a quarter of supplies and of that quarter, nuclear alone represents about one third.
Source: ExxonMobil
“ExxonMobil’s analysis and those of independent agencies confirms our long-standing view that all viable energy sources will be needed to meet increasing demand,” said CEO Rex Tillerson. “The Outlook for Energy is a useful resource to help understand future energy supply and demand, which can aid decisions by individuals, businesses and governments that together will affect the future of energy.”
The outlook sees global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions peaking around 2030 and then starting to decline. Emissions in OECD nations are projected to fall by about a fifth from 2014 to 2040.
In 2040, oil and natural gas are expected to make up nearly 60% of global supplies, according to the outlook; although where this will come from, and at what price, remain key unknowns, given the hundreds of billions of dollars worth of investments that the upstream community has shelved since the price crash of 2014.
Nuclear and renewables will be approaching a quarter. Oil will provide a third of the world’s energy in 2040, remaining the No. 1 source of fuel, and natural gas will move into second place, overtaking coal, according to the outlook, which is not to be confused with the International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook.
India will surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people. The two countries are expected to account for almost half of the growth in global energy demand.
Source: ExxonMobil
William Powell