Gas Use to Increase by 2040, Says Report by Statoil

Oil and gas will remain the backbone of the global energy mix over the coming decades, with the global market share of natural gas depending on policies and geopolitical factors. According to a new scenario-based report published by Statoil on Friday, gas use will increase by about 16% from 2011 to 2040 in the Low Carbon scenario, while it would substantially maintain its global market share in the Policy Paralysis, which is the scenario where ‘protectionism and geopolitical rivalry lead to lower growth, a less green energy mix and lower energy efficiency.’ 

However, in any scenario hypothesized by Statoil, further investments in gas infrastructures are needed.

“Given maturation of the world’s existing oil and gas fields, all three scenarios imply major investments to replace current production. Even a strong growth in renewables will not be enough to replace the natural decline from producing fields and meet the global demand for energy”, Statoil’s Chief economist Eirik Wærness said in the note highlighting the main results of the analysis. 

In this sense, gas will maintain or increase its market share. This would translate into increased gas use as global primary energy demand is set to increase over the coming 30 years over non-OECD countries’ growth. 

‘Global primary energy demand grows by 44% in the Reference scenario, by 4% in the Low Carbon scenario and by 26% in the Policy Paralysis scenario. To a varying degree in each scenario, growth will mainly come from non-OECD countries, as a result of continued economic growth, urbanisation and improving living standards.’