GECF Sees Soaring Gas Demand. Trade by 2040

Global gas consumption will rise significantly by 2040 with international gas trade witnessing 60% growth over a 25-year span, spot market deals soaring, and LNG capturing 40% of the total market in cross-border trade, according to a major study released in Doha today by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

In its Global Gas Outlook 2040, the GECF anticipates that gas demand will grow by 1.6%/yr, thus contributing the largest share to a growing energy market which will see an overall increase in primary energy demand of just 1.0% a year.  

In absolute terms, while primary energy demand is expected to grow from 13.847bn metric tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2015 to 17.733bn mtoe in 2040, gas demand is expected to rise from 2.988bn mtoe in 2015 to 4.496bn mtoe in 2040, boosting its share of global energy demand from 21% to 25%.

This rate of growth will, however, be eclipsed by both renewables and nuclear. Renewables (excluding hydro) are expected to grow from 1,697 mtoe in 2015 (12% of the global demand) to 2,762 mtoe in 2040 (16% of global demand) while nuclear is expected to see even faster growth from 663mn mtoe to 1.195bn mtoe over the 25-year period, raising its share from  5% to 7%.

In an accompanying interview with NGW, the secretary-general of the GECF Seyed Mohammad Hossein Adeli argued that “the gas market is still promising” – and cited two main reasons for this.

“One: gas used to be more of a domestic commodity; (now) it is becoming an international commodity and the growth of gas trade is increasing. In our forecast, we estimate that gas trade in the next 25 years will increase 60%,” he said.

He added: “The second reason is environmental concerns and (environmental) agreements in the world. The world is more conscious and concerned and compelled to attend to environmental issues, whether it is pollution and air quality or it is global warming."

UK major BP is launching its annual outlook on global energy on January 25. 

John Roberts

The full interview appears in the next issue of NGW, published January 25