Global gas exporters see 34% demand increase by 2050
Global natural gas demand is forecast to increase by 34% by 2050, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) said March 12 in its Global Gas Outlook 2050, with LNG trade expected to double over the same period.
The GECF is an intergovernmental organisation whose membership includes 12 major natural gas producing countries collectively representing 69% of the world’s natural gas reserves, 39% of global marketed production and 40% of global gas exports, including 51% of world LNG exports.
Total natural gas demand, the Outlook shows, is forecast to rise to 5,360bn m3 in 2050 from 4,015bn m3 in 2022, led by the power generation sector, which will account for 500bn m3, or 37% of the overall growth, and industrial consumption, which will increase by 20%, or 275bn m3.
LNG trade, meanwhile, will surpass pipeline natural gas trade by 2026, the GECF says, and double by 2050 to reach 805mn tonnes in 2050, representing some 64% of global traded gas. Supporting increased trade, the Outlook says, is global liquefaction capacity that will exceed 1,000mn tonnes by 2050, up from 476mn tonnes in 2022, and regasification capacity that is forecast to reach 1,800mn tonnes/year by the end of the outlook period.
Despite growing trade in natural gas and LNG, the GECF forecasts energy-related emissions under its Sustainable Energy Scenario (SES), in which natural gas will assume a 29% share of the global energy mix, will decline to 22.6 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2e), a reduction of 42% from 2022 levels.
Accelerated deployment of carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies will be the primary driver of emissions reductions, the Outlook says, with emissions savings expected to rise to 7.5 GtCO2e by 2050 from 12 MtCO2e in 2022.
But even greater environmental benefits can be achieved by the natural gas sector if it streamlines its supply chain, GECF Secretary General Eng. Mohamed Hamel said in releasing the Outlook at the forum’s headquarters in Doha, Qatar.
“This entails eliminating routine gas flaring and reducing methane emissions, alongside scaling up carbon capture, utilisation, and storage technologies, and kick-starting the blue hydrogen economy,” he said.