Iran’s Exports to Turkey Fall
Turkey imported only 160mn m3 of Iranian gas in August, about a third of August 2018 and its lowest monthly level for a decade; while its imports of Iranian crude have been zero since June 2019.
According to statistics, released by the energy market regulatory authority (Emra) on November 1, Turkey’s overall gas intake from Iran fell 10.5% year-on-year to 4.5bn m3.
The US withdrew from the nuclear deal in May 2018 at the insistence of its president, Donald Trump, and the government stopped issuing waivers for Iran’s oil customers in early May 2019.
US has been issuing waivers for Iraq to continue importing Iranian gas, but neither Turkey nor US are talking about possible waivers for Ankara. Turkey imported less than 2.1mn metric tons of Iranian oil in January-May 2019, a year-on-year drop of 55%.
According to the latest official report, released by Turkey statistics bureau, Turkey’s total imports from Iran during January-September 2019 declined 46% year-on-year to $3bn, while its exports to Iran declined by 5% to $1.74bn.
The September imports value is very close to August at around $90mn, suggesting the amount of gas imported in September is similar to August.
Iran's budget assumed it would export $3.4bn-worth of gas to Turkey and Iraq this fiscal year. Last week the International Monetary predicted that Iran’s budget would equal 8% of GDP. Iran’s GDP is estimated to stand at $458.5bn this year.
Turkey’s overall gas intake
Turkey imported 3.148bn m3 in August, which indicates a 3.74% growth year on year. It is first time in 2019 that monthly intakes show year-on-year growth. It imported more than 801mn m3 LNG in August, or about 80% more than August 2018. Its pipeline imports also declined by 9.5% to 2.346bn m3. The country’s overall gas import during January-August declined 9% year-on-year to 29.693bn m3.
Only Azerbaijan has increased pipeline gas deliveries to Turkey during eight months: 6.04bn m3, which indicate about 35% year-on-year growth, thanks to the ramp up of the Southern Gas Corridor.
Turkey consumed 30.625bn m3 gas in 8 months, about 5.5% less than January-August 2018. Its gas held in underground facilities totalled 2.5bn m3 in August, compared with about 3bn m3 in August 2018.