Israel and Turkey: Friends Again
On the last day of Obama’s visit to Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized to Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan ‘for any mistakes that might have led to the loss of life or injury’ resulting in the death of nine Turks on the Turkish Mavi Marmara aid ship that was attempting to break the Gaza blockade. Netanyahu also agreed to pay compensation, but did not promise to lift the blockade stressing however that Israel has recently eased restrictions on civilian goods coming into Gaza, and agreeing to work closely with Turkey on enhancing the humanitarian situation there. Minister Recep Erdogan accepted the apology, a significant step toward restoring normal diplomatic relations between two countries known to have historically had good ties. Erdogan also agreed to drop the prosecutions of Israeli officers that followed the flotilla raid. Speaking at a news conference with King Abdullah in Amman Friday, President Obama said the timing of his trip to Israel was beneficial for both countries, their friendship being key to stability in the region. The reasons behind the apology are various, some obvious and some less.
The Syrian Civil War
Syria is entering its third year of uprising. Turkey and Israel’s collaboration to contain political risks and prevent the crisis from spilling over their borders has not only become paramount but a matter of urgency. Ankara has suffered tremendously from the Syrian civil war: loss of trade, border threats and over half a million Syrian refugees entering its territory are just a few consequences. The possibility of Syrian chemical weapons use near Turkey’s border was an additional catalyst to Turkey’s acceptance of Israel’s apology; Ankara could use Israel’s assistance. Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed this motivation by saying that the central consideration behind his apology was ‘the fact that Syria is getting worse by the minute’.
Energy Considerations
It is not only about Syria. In fact, it has very little to do with Syria. The apology comes at a time when Israel is considering whether to export its gas and how to do so; this can’t simply be a coincidence. Building a pipeline that would transport the Israeli gas all the way from Israel’s Leviathan gas to a Russia-dominated Europe via Turkey would make economic sense for Israel. It would also make sense to energy-hungry Turkey. The previously deteriorated relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv constituted one of the obstacles to such a collaboration. The recent reconciliation increases the chances of the Israeli-Turkish pipeline and as a result the ones of Turkey becoming a regional energy hub. Turkey’s involvement in the transportation of Israeli gas is now closer to becoming a reality. But where does this leave Cyprus?
What about Cyprus?
Now that Israel and Turkey are on their way to agreeing further energy collaboration and construct a pipeline from Israel to Turkey, Cyprus has to question its energy partnership with Israel. Cyprus’ original plans of sharing infrastructure costs with Israel to transport its own gas have become less certain. The LNG is the best way to transport Cypriot gas but this option will prove costly. Russia’s assistance in the transport of Cypriot gas is unlikely. The debt-crippled country has been anxiously waiting for a helping hand, turning to the EU then to Russia then back to the EU. Russia refused to bail out Cyprus, access to the island’s offshore gas not being enough of a motivation to step in. Moscow preferred to let the Russian depositors of two of Cyprus largest banks suffer the consequences. The island will no longer be what it used to be for Russia: an offshore haven for Russian cash. Russia could not upset Europe, its largest trading partner, the source of most of Moscow’s gas revenues. Cyprus had to accept the EU’s harsh conditions. The renewed ties between Israel and Turkey come at a time of suffering for Cyprus. It looks like Cyprus will have to wait before becoming suddenly rich.
Karen Ayat is an analyst focused on energy geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean