Many Steps to Becoming Norway

Boon or Bane?

The above titled posting in the Eastern Approaches blog of The Economist, examines the prospects of shale gas in Poland and outlines some of the the roadblocks to that country becoming a "a second Norway".

That specific comment was made earlier this year by Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski in advance of the commencement of drilling for shale gas in Poland.

Sikorski acknowledged that this would be a 10-15 year evolution. Certainly, commercial quantities of shale gas need to be discovered to make that statement a reality.  At this stage no one actually knows how much gas is trapped in Polish shale and estimates range widely.

The Economist writes that even if the gas is there, there will be obstacles above ground.  Many of these have been mentioned before: the lack of small wildcat exploration firms that spearheaded shale-gas exploitation in America, a shortage of drilling rigs and technical expertise, the impact of drilling on densely populated areas, etc.

Though the path is not as clear as the United States, operators that NGFE has spoken with do not see these as hurdles that can not be overcome if, there is indeed, economic quantities of shale gas in the ground.

The posting also outlines the thoughts of  Grzegorz Pytel, a pundit at the Sobieski Institute, a think-tank. He remarks that "resources do not guarantee prosperity, and may prove detrimental to it."

Pytel's concern is that who remarks that a great part of the challenge to success lies in Poland's history as part of the Soviet block and whose state-governance traditions are rooted in the Soviet system. He says that market based mechanisms must be put place to avert the resource curse, pointing (rather dramatically), to energy-rich countries like Nigeria, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and Turkmenistan, "which at worst are prodigiously corrupt."

Read the Full Posting Here