McKinsey projects 10% growth in gas demand in next decade

Consulting group McKinsey expects a growth in natural gas demand of 10% over the next decade across all the scenarios laid out in its 2022 Global Energy Perspective report, published on April 26.

After 2030, however, McKinsey's projections diverge depending on how the energy transition takes shape. Gas demand could peak as soon as 2030 in the firm's Achieved Commitments scenario, but only by 2040 in the Current Trajectory scenario, at 16% above the current level. Gas could still have its current 23% share of primary energy demand in 2050, or the share could shrink to as little as 15%.

McKinsey warned that "uncertainty around the pace and shape of the energy transition may impact the volatility in gas prices and lead to even more pronounced investment cycles."

Growth in gas demand moving forward will be propelled by increased consumption in power and industry, particularly in Asia, offset by increased insulation, electrification and the usage of green gases such as hydrogen and bio-methane.