MIT Report: Natural gas rising to the top

Coal will be shown the door.

The New York Times writes that in coming years America will be using twice as much natural gas as it does now, according to a report published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Natural gas’s share of the energy market is set to increase from 20 percent to 40 percent, it contends.

Why the big change? Natural gas looks like the clear frontrunner for clean energy as decreasing carbon emissions to reduce climate change tops the agenda. But the larger factor may be the availability of new, abundant natural gas resources like that from shale rock.

Especially in the United States, one reason for new optimism about supplies is the success that drillers have had exploring shale formations for natural gas. Shale drilling requires fracturing the rock, a technique called “fracking.” The method has raised concern about damage to underground water supplies and faces opposition from environmental groups, especially in areas that do not now have oil and gas drilling.

The piece points out that the only thing that could dampen the natural gas industry’s high hopes in the US are potential stricter climate change regulations which could be enacted by President Barack Obama’s administration. Those would demand lower emission levels than those experienced 20 years ago, and natural gas is still a carbon-intensive energy source.

According to the MIT report, it looks like natural gas - rather than coal - is being replaced in many cases by wind energy to power America’s national energy grid. Still, gas is likely to replace some of the coal used to produce electricity; manufacturers of coal- and gas-fired plants say that’s already happening.

Meanwhile, natural gas powered cars are much more expensive to purchase in the US in contrast to Europe, while converting gasoline-powered automobiles to burn natural gas is also costly.

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