Ontario’s grid operator says gas moratorium feasible in 2027

Ontario’s electricity grid operator, the Independent Electric System Operator (IESO), said in a new report December 15 a moratorium on new gas-fired generation in the province could be feasible starting in 2027.

In its Pathways to Decarbonization report, one of three requested by Ontario’s energy ministry, the IESO said the province could begin moving toward a decarbonised grid, starting with a moratorium on new gas generation beginning in 2027, as long as enough non-emitting supply was in place to meet expected demand growth.

In its 2022 Annual Planning Outlook report, also released December 15, the IESO said Ontario’s electricity demand will increase by nearly 2%/year over the next two decades, driven by economic growth and electrification.

At the same time, the report found that achieving a decarbonised electricity system by 2050, alongside “aggressive” electrification targets, would require investments of about C$400bn to create a grid more than twice the current size. The higher costs, it said, could be offset by lower overall energy costs as consumers reduced their reliance on fossil fuels and through energy efficiency measures.

Lesley Gallinger, CEO of the IESO, noted that Ontario’s power grid is already one of the cleanest in North America, with about 90% of its supply coming from non-emitting sources like nuclear and hydro. 

“The process of fully eliminating emissions from the grid itself, however, will be a significant and complex undertaking,” she said. “Through our ongoing commitment to work with a wide range of partners to assess risks and overcome challenges, we believe it is possible to achieve an orderly transition toward a decarbonised electricity system that remains reliable, affordable and sustainable.”

Besides planning for a gas moratorium within five years, the IESO suggested a number of “no regret” actions that could be taken as the province moves towards decarbonisation, including continuing efforts to secure additional non-emitting supply, expanding energy efficiency programming, starting the planning and preliminary site work for long-lead nuclear, storage, hydro and transmission projects and continuing its support for low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen.

Earlier this year, the IESO said it would undertake a competitive supply procurement strategy targeting up to 2,500 MW of storage alongside as much as 1,500 MW of gas-fired generation that could be put into service in the 2025-2027 timeframe.