Prices ease on milder forecasts; storage concerns persist
Jan 6 (Reuters) - Dutch and British wholesale gas prices eased on Monday as the latest forecasts showed milder temperatures next week but lower storage levels than in the last five years continue to support prices near 14-month highs.
The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.77 euros at 48.83 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $14.81/mmbtu, at 0856 GMT, according to LSEG data.
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In Britain, the front-month contract was down 1.52 pence at 122.65 pence per therm, while the day-ahead contract was down 1.90 pence at 122.25 pence per therm.
"The recent rally has lost steam and the upcoming cold should be largely priced in. The indication of a warmer next week should dominate and we expect prices to trade slightly lower," LSEG analyst Ulrich Weber said.
Temperatures were at normal seasonal levels on Monday but are set to drop from Tuesday and remain cold for the remainder of this week, while the average temperature forecasts from this morning were significantly warmer for next week, he added.
Wind power generation, which impacts gas demand for electricity production, is also strong for the next two days but then on a declining trajectory, Weber said.
Last week, prices rallied to above 50 euros/MWh for the first time since October 2023 following the end of Russian pipeline gas deliveries via Ukraine and colder weather forecasts.
The colder-than-usual weather could see storage falling at a quicker-than-expected pace, analysts at ING said in a morning report.
European storage sites are currently just over 70% full, compared with 85% at the same time last year and also below the five-year average of around 76%, they added.
"Storage levels should still mean that Europe gets through this winter comfortably. However, the refilling of storage through the injection season will be a bigger job than last year which should provide some support to summer prices," ING's analysts said.
The TTF summer 2025 contract traded at 48.80 euros/MWh, compared with 45.50 euros/MWh for next winter.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 0.96 euro at 74.98 euros a metric ton.
(Reporting by Nora Buli in Oslo; editing by Nina Chestney)