Moscow Times: Russia's Gas Monopoly Is Over
The position of Russian natural gas in Central and Eastern Europe seems unshakeable: 100 percent market share in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Belarus, 90 percent in Bulgaria, 80 percent in Hungary and Slovakia, and 60 percent in the Czech Republic, Poland and Ukraine. Yet these figures disguise crucial vulnerabilities. In the coming years, Russia's export volumes will remain high, even as its position in the European energy markets erodes. Often, discussion of the shale revolution's impact on Russia focuses on the prospect of American LNG displacing gas flowing through Russia's transcontinental pipelines.
Such analysis is misleading. Increasing global supplies damage Russian interests. It is important to remember that, as recently as 2005, projections favored the U.S. to become the largest net buyer of natural gas in the world. But in the years since, domestic production rose 34 percent, making the country functionally independent of offshore suppliers.
The closure of the U.S. LNG import market is forcing producers in the Middle East and Africa to look for customers elsewhere. This exerts downward pressure on prices and is making LNG from all sources more economical for European consumers.