Moscow Times: The Treads of Russia's Gas Tank
A few days ago, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych made the remarkable statement that, by mining its own shale gas deposits, Ukraine would end its dependence on Russian gas by 2020 and even vie with on the European gas market.
Frankly, Yanukovych's statement should be taken with a grain of salt — just like similar pronouncements by the presidents of Russia and Zimbabwe. But the trend he refers to is clear. The gas and trade wars that the Kremlin has repeatedly unleashed against members of the Commonwealth of Independent States have failed to increase respect for Russia or its geopolitical influence. Just the opposite. Those conflicts have shattered whatever respect Russia still enjoyed and forced regimes of every stripe — democratic, authoritarian and nearly dysfunctional — to do everything possible to end dependence on Russia.
President Vladimir Putin has consistently shown that to have dealings with Russia is to be dependent on Russia. Nothing illustrates this better than the example of natural gas.
The Kremlin's euphoria over gas began in 2005, the year after Russia signed an agreement with Germany for the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline. At the time, Berlin must have thought, "Gas is gas, and if Russia is offering favorable terms, why not sign a deal?" But the Kremlin soon began speaking of Russia as an "energy superpower" and its huge gas reserves as an "energy weapon." Russia envisioned the pipeline as a sort of enormous handle giving it leverage against Europe. MORE