Shale Could Shake Up Global Balance of Power, says Expert

Shale energy potential represented a huge shake-up of the world, geopolitically as well as through energy economics, a global conference has heard.

Alan Riley, who is to present his findings on shale to a top European Union committee, said that shale gas could in theory move the energy power dynamic of the globe from the Middle East and Russia to the United States.

China would also be a big player, because of its currently untapped resources of shale gas and oil.

Professor Riley, of City University London, spoke at the Shale Gas Environmental Summit in London.

“Shale is the greatest development since coal replaced oil as the world’s principle transportation fuel,” he said. He said that the debate over shale extraction’s effect on the environment and climate was obscuring the bigger picture, that shale could shift the power centres of the world.

“Environmental issues cause people to lose sense of the impact of shale,” he said.

He pointed out the 80:10 proportion, meaning that Russia and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to date controlled 80 per cent of fossil fuel production, while China and the OECD accounted for only 10 per cent. This, and all it stood for, would be dismantled were shale deposits to be developed on a major global scale.

Prof Riley estimated that, with government blessing and appropriate development, the global gas market could amount to 6Tcm by 2020, two-thirds more than an upbeat estimate given by the International Energy Agency.

“This is very big news. It has world geopolitical consequences,” he told the conference.

Noting the rapid development of shale extraction in the US, and the plentiful reserves in the north American continent he said that fossil fuel production is shifting from the Middle East to the Americas. He raised the prospect of the US being “hemispherically independent” in energy.

On the question of climatic effect, he said that gas was cleaner than coal. But ultimately, given the world economic crisis, a more cost-effective solution would have to be found to the twin imperatives of environment and energy needs. “Economic forces are so strong that the EU will be forced to move to a new strategy [on energy],” he said.