South Stream: An Ongoing Saga
The South Stream pipeline project seems to be facing an existential crisis following ferocious opposition by the European Commission and strong disagreement from the US. Despite the ongoing upturns regarding these issues, a new set of developments shed new light into the situation and provides clues as to how it may evolve.
To begin, at a recent official visit in Sofia by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Minister Lavrov noted that the project is going forward, reaffirming the support of the incumbent Bulgarian government, despite the fact that the latter decided to temporarily postpone construction. More importantly, Lavrov commented that South Stream is not subject to the EU's Third Energy Package, since bilateral agreements were signed before the drafting and agreement of the package. Furthermore, Lavrov elaborated that according to the basic rules of both national and international laws, a new law cannot have a precedent authority.
He also added that the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is a newer project, had readily been given an exemption from the energy package. In that sense, Lavrov outlined the two basic legal arguments by which Gazprom may eventually use in the international courts. Despite the fact that one may add that TAP is actually a diversification tool aimed at curbing Gazprom’s dominance in Europe, that does not change the core of the argument - adherence or not and how of legal regulations. Moreover, South Stream does not necessarily compete with TAP, since it will not add new volume on the market, but simply bypass an existing route.
From the Bulgarian side, agreement on the above was provided by Foreign Minister Kristian Vigenin and from the Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski who in turn added that the suspension of the works for the pipeline are temporary in nature and that the project is for the best strategic interest of both his country and the rest of the EU's twenty seven member states. Since the South Stream project is inexorably related to the wider Ukrainian issue and the warlike conditions in that country, it is of interest that Sofia sided indirectly but firmly with the Russian stance, calling for a ceasefire and dialogue amongst the rebels and the Kiev government, whilst it requested from the Ukrainian authorities to protect and enchase the rights of the sizeable Bulgarian minority in this country, a goal also espoused by Kremlin and noted in a speech of President Putin in April this year.
It can be concluded that the reference to Ukraine was a mark aimed at relaying the message to Brussels that despite the ongoing debacle South Stream, bilateral relations between Sofia and Moscow remain strong, thus discussion is needed in order to solve the pipeline problem. A similar diplomatic language is heard by Hungary in relation to both Ukraine and South Stream
Concurrently, another Southeast European country, Slovenia, which is also part of South Stream, recently gave its commitment to the gas project. “We want South Stream to pass through our territory,” said the head of the Slovenia’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs Karl Erjavec.
Lastly, Serbia through its Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic who visited Russia in early July, backed the South Stream route and added that all important aspects have been solved and construction is ready to go and that local companies are mainly going to be involved.