Sub-Saharan Africa to Produce More Gas Than Russia by 2040
Driven primarily by Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and Angola, sub-Saharan Africa will outstrip Russia as global gas supplier by 2040, according a report by International Energy Agency (IEA).
IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook, presented in Brussels on Wednesday stated that the region will make the fourth-largest contribution globally to incremental gas supply through to 2040, behind the Middle East, China and the United States but ahead of Latin America, the Caspian region, Russia and Australia.
Production will increase to four-times existing levels, from 58 bcm in 2012 to around 80 bcm in 2020, 160 bcm in 2030 and 230 bcm in 2040, averaging an annual growth rate of 5 percent.
Overall, Nigeria produces over 40 percent of all sub-Saharan gas over the projection period, followed by Mozambique (20 percent) and Angola (13 percent). The remaining quarter of production is spread across more than 30 producers, led by Tanzania and South Africa, and smaller contributions from Equatorial Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire and Congo.
Nigeria is, and remains, the largest gas producer in sub-Saharan Africa over the period, with production of 85 bcm in 2040. Mozambique joins Nigeria as the other major gas producer in sub-Saharan Africa and, in 2040, these two countries collectively account for nearly two-thirds of regional production, the report said.
According to IEA, Mozambique sees the largest growth in gas production in the sub-Saharan region, starting in the early-2020s, to reach 35 bcm in 2030 and 60 bcm in 2040, and is joined by neighbouring Tanzania, which also grows from the early-2020s to 20 bcm by 2040, to bring online a large source of supply on Africa’s east coast.
Production in Angola increases early in the projection period, with the stalled Angola LNG project achieving its expected export volumes in 2016, reaching around 20 bcm in 2025 and maintaining about that level to 2040, the IEA report stated.
Gas production in Central Africa grows modestly, staying flat overall for the first decade of the projection period before gradually increasing to reach 16 bcm by 2040. Equatorial Guinea – the second-largest producer in sub-Saharan Africa today – is the only existing producer in the region whose output is lower than today in 2040, holding at around 6 bcm in the early years of the projection period, before gradually declining, according to the report.