The Diplomat: TAPI and India’s Future in Eurasia

The inability of 20th steering committee meeting of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project to select a consortium leader during its February 11, 2015 deliberations in Islamabad has raised renewed concerns about the mega-project’s prospects. It also highlights the continued questions over India’s capacity to become a major power in Eurasia. With Russian and Chinese firms now being considered as candidates along with France’s Total S.A. for consortium leader, India’s efforts to improve its geostrategic position in Eurasia’s Central Asian heartland may be about to receive a significant setback. 

The TAPI pipeline is slated to transport 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas from Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh field, the world’s second largest natural gas deposit, to the neighboring South Asian region, helping to provide stability to energy-starved Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as helping to meet the Indian economy’s own skyrocketing demand. TAPI will provide Afghanistan with 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas, while India and Pakistan will each receive 1.365 bcfd. However, the $10 billion “Peace Pipeline” designed to promote regional cooperation will have to traverse a dangerous route before reaching India, passing through Afghanistan’s Kandahar province and the neighboring Quetta region of Pakistan, traditionally the heartland of Taliban militancy.

Because of the risk involved, progress on TAPI has stalled. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), which assumed the role of transaction advisor to facilitate the construction of the pipeline, estimates that the delays have raised the cost of the project by $2.5 billion to its current $10 billion price tag. In October 2014, the ADB commissioned a feasibility study for the TAPI pipeline project as part of its effort to establish a consortium that would construct the pipeline by 2018. At the previous TAPI Steering Committee meeting held in November 2014 in Turkmenistan’s capital Ashgabat, representatives from the four nations and the ADB agreed to an accelerated timetable for completion of the pipeline. Pending selection of a consortium leader, construction could begin in 2015 and the pipeline could be operational by 2018. MORE