The Levant Energy Basin: A Geopolitical Game Changer in the Eastern Mediterranean?

The Mediterranean Sea has always been considered as a relevant strategic corridor for the energy deliveries, given the domestic demand of the EU southern countries and the geographical proximity of the North Africa’s gas producers and suppliers to the EU markets.

However, the discovery of abundant offshore gas reserves in Israel and Cyprus between 2009 and 2011 have progressively highlighted the strategic potential of the Levant Basin, shifting the geopolitical focus from the southern shore to the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, the Arab Spring events in 2011 and the following condition of instability have dramatically showed the vulnerability of the traditional North African energy suppliers, which could have some difficulties to ensure regular supply without interruptions. The estimates of the US Geological Survey on the offshore natural gas potential in the Levant Basin have contributed to enhance the ambition of some Eastern Mediterranean countries - Israel, Cyprus and Lebanon - to become energy independent and also energy suppliers exporting natural gas to the regional and international markets. The development of the offshore energy reserves in the Levant Basin will represent an influent “geopolitical game changer” which will give a new energy status to the Eastern Mediterranean countries, potentially affecting the existent political scenario characterized by traditional rivalries which currently hampers a profitable cooperation to address threats and challenges.

The aim of this working paper is to analyze the energy potential of the Levant Basin, mainly focusing on the offshore gas reserves of Israel, Cyprus and Lebanon and the different envisaged export routes to ship the future production to the markets: the strategic decision to privilege regional or international markets, the need to achieve the necessary precondition of a scenario of security and stability to develop the energy potential, the political tensions among regional countries which hinder the realization of an Eastern Mediterranean integrated gas system represent some of the main key topics which will influence the evolution of the Eastern Mediterranean energy chessboard.

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Fabio Indeo, EGS Korea