Turkish Demand to Grow in 2019: Regulator
Turkey's energy regulator EPDK is predicting that Turkish gas demand in 2019 will be 52.13bn m3, a rise of 4% on the 50bn m3 reported for 2018. The EPDK made the announcement in Turkey's official state gazette January 24, in line with its responsibility as market regulator under Turkey's natural gas law.
Although a small rise on 2018 demand, the estimate for 2019 is still 3.2% down on the 53.85bn m3 reported in 2017, the highest annual consumption yet recorded.
The statement did not give details of how the figure was reached or which sectors the regulator expects demand to rise in. Ankara has for most of the past year been taking steps to try to reduce the gas burn by the Turkey's power sector in an effort to reduce the trade deficit. Gas is bought in dollars and the lira is weak. The most significant measures was a series of hikes in the price state gas importer Botas charges gas fired power plant for gas, the first of which, imposed August 1, was an unprecedented 49.5%.
The measures appear to have had the desired effect with the bulk of the demand drop being recorded over the last five months of the year; the 7.1% fall was almost twice what Turkey's gas distributors association had forecast in mid 2018, based on first-half data.
With winter temperatures higher than normal and Turkey still enjoying generation overcapacity, the operators of Turkey's major gas-fired power plants are reporting that they are operating at around 30% of capacity and unable to make a profit.
They expect some relief next month when the 20-year power offtake guarantees given to a number of major ccgt plant built in the late 1990s start to time out, but caution that power sector over-capacity will continue to dampen gas demand for a few years yet.
Gas demand from the distribution sector appears to be set to increase with Botas continuing to roll out new main distribution pipelines across the country. Announcements in the official gazette January 25 confirm Botas as being given permission for the compulsory purchase of land to lay pipes to supply the Buyukoran, Orhaneli and Keles districts of the north western Turkish city of Bursa.