Presenting its "Summer Outlook" report April 7, Grid said that it expected a total 36.5bn m³ of gas to be consumed this summer, averaging around 200mn m³/day.

 

"Our analysis of fuel prices suggests that gas will be favoured over coal for power generation this summer," Grid said. But it noted that low-efficiency gas plants were very close in comparison with coal, and that only "a small change" in fuel or carbon prices would alter the balance.

 

Grid defines "summer" as the period from April to September. The average demand of 200mn m³/day is up from 189mn m³/day the previous year, which would have been slightly higher, at 192 mn m³/day, if the weather had been as expected on average, rather than the slightly colder temperatures actually seen.

 

Daily demand could range from 90 to 350 mn m³/day this summer, Grid says, although the extreme ends of the range are unlikely. Power consumption of natural gas could range from 25mn m³/day to 100mn m³/day, according to Grid.

 

Last summer the range of demand was 97-252mn m³/day, while power generation varied from 25mn m³/day to only 61mn m³/day, significantly lower than the potential seen this summer.

Exports to Ireland are expected to drop this year from 15mn m³/day to 8mn m³/day, after the start-up of that country's long-awaited Corrib gas field last year, and if the completion of pipeline checks goes well by mid to late summer.

 

On the supply side, flows from the UK's own production, Norway and imports from the continent are expected to be similar to last year. However the supply of LNG is expected to pick up from last year. It could average around 8.2mn m³/day, up from 6.2mn m³/day last year, Grid said. LNG supply can now come from the US, which has been exporting its first (non-Alaskan) cargoes.

 

Total's Laggan gas field west of Shetland is a boost to the UK's own production for this year, having started up during 2015. In all, UK output this summer is expected at 16.3bn m³ or 89mn m³/day. That would be up 2mn m³/day from last year.

 

The UK-Belgium Interconnector is expected to spend the summer exporting from the UK to the continent.

 

Grid does not expect any overall problems balancing supply and demand over the summer. However the source of supplies is more unpredictable than in the past, such as when the UK took the bulk of its gas from its own resources. Now the operator must plan for a mix of imported pipeline and LNG flows arriving at different destinations, as well as more demanding requests from consumers.

 

"The way the gas network is being used by our customers is changing. To meet their requirements, the network needs to be more flexible than ever before," said Grid.