Study: Unconventional Sources of Natural Gas - Development and Possible Consequences for the Central Eastern Europe

The International Institute of Political Science (IIPS) at Masaryk University in Brno (Czech Republic) has recently released a new study which was prepared by the researchers from both IIPS and the Department of International Relations and European Studies and which focuses on potential impacts of unconventional gas development in Poland.

The English study titled "Unconventional Sources of Natural Gas: Development and Possible Consequences for the Central Eastern European Region" responds to the highly topical issue of use of unconventional gas resources that can fundamentally change energy situation in the Central and Eastern Europe, just as in the recent case of the United States. The aim of the study is to analyze the current situation of unconventional gas development in Poland, possible limits of shale gas extraction, the legislative framework for mining and position of the key players operating within the Polish gas market. Attention is also drawn to the European Union and role of Russia due to its current dominant position in providing gas supplies for Europe. In case of the EU, the study focuses primarily on relevant actors in legislative process and related legislation concerning regulation of mining and environmental protection.

The qualitative part of the research is derived from a series of interviews with the key actors and represented by results of the Dynamic Actors Network Analysis model. The potential impact of unconventional gas development has been analyzed by original mathematical model called MEOS, which developed the team of authors in cooperation with researchers from the Faculty of Informatics of Masaryk University. This model represents the quantitative part of the research and is used for evaluation of different scenarios that reflect various possibilities of shale gas production, utilization of infrastructure and impact on the Central European gas market.

The study is based on research conducted on behalf of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic within the grant entitled "Unconventional natural gas resources - the potential and the possible consequences for the region of Central Europe." Data collection phase took place in Poland and Brussels between April 2011 and January 2012.

The study is available here.