US Eyes 50% Gas Output Growth
US dry gas output reached 92bn ft³/d (about 2.6bn m3/d) last year, 9.8% more than 2018, but it has potential to exceed 120bn ft³/d by 2050, the Energy Information Administration said January 29. This year's production is expected to reach 94.7bn ft3/d.
The report says in the best outlook, production can exceed 145bn ft3/d by 2050, but in the most pessimistic case – low oil and gas resource and technology – it would remain flat (see graph).
The report says that production grows faster than consumption after 2020, leading to a corresponding growth in US exports of natural gas to global markets.
EIA scenarios for gas output to 2050
Source: EIA
EIA says US dry natural gas production grows as a result of continued development of tight and shale resources which would account for nearly 90% of production in 2050.
US has been a net gas exporter in the last few years, but its net exports can reach 21bn ft3/d by 2050, of which a half would be LNG and the rest would be piped gas exports to Canada and Mexico.
Imports from Canada will slowly decline to 7bn ft3/d by 2050, but US exports to Canada would go up slightly because of eastern Canada’s proximity to US natural gas resources in the Marcellus and Utica plays and additional, recently built pipeline infrastructure, the report said.