Stratfor: When Geography Changes
A new study on global temperature trends will be published in the March 8 issue of Science. The study observes cyclical temperature patterns over the course of the last 11,300 years and determines that current temperatures have yet to exceed previous peaks. However, the study suggests that by 2100, temperatures will exceed those of any previous time period.
Geography is enduring, but it does occasionally change. Infrastructure projects such as the Suez and Panama canals can affect it. The extent and effect of climate change is still unknown, but it has the potential to make significant changes to what we think of as immovable geographic realities. To be clear, we are not debating the causation of this warming trend, nor are we discussing measures aimed at limiting its impact. Rather, we would like to use this opportunity to discuss how climate change could impact geopolitics. Agriculture remains a key piece to this new puzzle; changes in the location of water and of land suited for food production could alter traditional geopolitical dynamics. Geography and climate shape regions and countries. If we accept that there will be changes to temperature, climate and perhaps weather, then there will also likely be variations in the availability of arable land that can support large populations and agriculture.
Climate, rainfall and land quality are key determinants of state power. A country with significant amounts of arable land and easily traversed territory has an automatic advantage over other states. These characteristics make it easy for countries to support domestic populations and also to accumulate capital through the export of agricultural goods before any industrial base has to be built. This means that changes in access to arable land can have profound effects on a country's ability to take care of its domestic population and to participate in global markets.
Brazil is a good example of this. Its coastal geography makes building roads and railways from the interior to the coast quite difficult, but its climate is perfectly suited to sugar cane growth, which has allowed the country to develop an impressive ethanol industry that has made Brazil's energy sources among the most diversified in the world.
China, which faces extreme population pressures and increasingly relies on foreign sources of many commodities, is using agricultural land in the Northeast -- specifically in Heilongjiang province -- to develop a state-controlled agricultural heartland to supplement the rest of the country's agriculture, which is for the most part family-run. China's population exceeds 1.3 billion, which makes food security a critical issue of state stability.
Russia's massive grain belt, which has in centuries past allowed the country to support outsized domestic armies, lacks adequate infrastructure, complicating the process of moving grain across the country's expanse.
The United States is an example of success anchored in favorable geography. The overlap of a wide swath of farmland and a large navigable river system has allowed the nation to thrive. Enough food is grown in the Midwestern farm belt and along the Mississippi River system to not only sustain the population of the United States, but to also make it the largest exporter of grain in the world.
Increasing urbanization and growing populations are boosting demand for agricultural products and water, thus causing great stress in several countries. An ongoing shift in dietary patterns that prioritizes the consumption of meat raises the demand for grain, which can pressure agricultural production and water supplies. And while water scarcity is an ongoing problem, the impact of a larger warming trend is not known. Over the course of history, warmer eras have also been wetter ones, but we can expect rain patterns to fluctuate in ways we do not fully understand right now.
With increasing temperatures, we could very well see a shift in the location of the temperate zones in which agricultural development flourishes. As tropical zones expand to both the north and the south, the temperate zones shift north toward the Artic and south toward the Antarctic. Warming in higher latitudes can affect glaciers, initially speeding and then slowing the runoff feeding streams and rivers. Arable land will increase for some regions and decrease for others. This could fundamentally change the hand of geographic cards a specific nation has been dealt. Traditional agricultural powers could face new challenges, while nations that once struggled with food security may be able to domestically produce agricultural staples. Affected countries will probably invest heavily in either adapting to or taking advantage of new climate conditions -- for example, by building new infrastructure to prepare for changes in transport and trade patterns.
The specific effects of climate change remain uncertain. When geography does change meaningfully -- whatever the nature of the change -- the parameters of analysis and human action change in profound ways that can be difficult to predict.
This Geopolitical Diary was first published on Stratfor. Natural Gas Europe is pleased to provide this article in cooperation with Stratfor. For more visit http://www.stratfor.com/