[NGW Magazine] UN says Paris deal needs tightening
This article is featured in NGW Magazine Volume 2, Issue 21
The United Nations has warned that national pledges (NDCs) will deliver only a third of the emissions cuts required by 2030 to meet climate targets.
In Emissions Gap Report 2017, the UN Environmental Programme argues that the private sector and sub-national action is “not increasing at a rate that would help close this worrying gap.”
Whereas the Paris Agreement looks to limit global warming to under 2o Celsius, with a more ambitious goal of 1.5oC also on the table, the UNEP report warns that, as things stand, even full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs makes a temperature increase of at least 3oC by 2100 very likely. It says governments therefore need to deliver much stronger pledges, when these are revised in 2020. “Should the US follow through with its stated intention to leave the Paris Agreement in 2020, the picture could become even bleaker,” the UNEP added.
The report lays out practical suggestions of how to slash emissions, including deploying technology. It also notes that CO2 emissions have remained stable since 2014, driven in part by renewable energy notably in China and India.
Erik Solheim, head of UN Environment, though comments: “One year after the Paris Agreement entered into force, we still find ourselves in a situation where we are not doing nearly enough to save hundreds of millions of people from a miserable future.”
Kick the coal habit
“Avoiding new coal-fired power plants and accelerated phasing out of existing plants – ensuring careful handling of issues such as employment, investor interests and grid stability – would help. There are an estimated 6,683 operating coal-fired power plants in the world, with a combined capacity of 1,964 gigawatts (GW). If these plants are operated until the end of their lifetime and not retrofitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS), they would emit an accumulated 190 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2,” the UNEP said.
“In early 2017, an additional 273 GW of coal-fired capacity was under construction and 570 GW in pre-construction. These new plants could lead to additional accumulated emissions of approximately 150 Gt CO2. Ten countries make up approximately 85% of the entire coal pipeline: China, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan and [South] Korea.”
Stop the dither
Nor does Emissions Gap Report 2017 pull punches with other influential G20 countries.
South Africa’s “political lock-in” is slowing the process of coal phase-out, despite economics favouring low-carbon alternatives. State generating giant “Eskom is building, new coal-fired capacity at costs that are approximately 40%–50% higher than the prices achieved for wind and solar photovoltaic in recent renewable energy auctions”, the report says. Thus Eskom, which generates 90% of South Africa’s electricity from coal, is able – as grid operator – “to limit a rapid transition” to lower-carbon generation,be that renewables or gas-fired power.
The report also finds that Indonesia is exporting less of its coal but burning more itself. “The country aims to provide an increasing share of energy by domestic sources, including coal” while state utility PLN estimates that, in the next decade, 77 GW of additional capacity will be needed, of which 32 GW are planned to be coal-fired plants.
Invest in technology
The report’s Chapter 7 outlines ways for industry, cities and others – in sectors like buildings, energy, farms & forestry, manufacturing, and transport – to invest “at a cost of under $100 per metric ton of CO2 avoided, often much lower” which it says could save up to 36 Gt CO2 equivalent/year by 2030.
Such savings alone, it says, would put the world well on track to hitting the 2oC target, and unlock the possibility of reaching the aspirational 1.5oC goal.
The methods outlined range from natural (forest sinks), through hybrid- (such as ocean alkalinity enhancement), to technology-based systems including CCS. But it admits that, whilst there’s much ongoing work worldwide on CO2 removal, the field “remains very young, particularly for technology-based solutions, with relatively little scholarship on the direct topic of carbon dioxide removal” adding: “Only one country in the world, the UK, has a government programme aimed explicitly at supporting CO2 removal.”
Mark Smedley