Paris Accord Needs Unprecedented Co-operation: Statoil

Norwegian oil and gas major Statoil can see a future where new renewables go up from just over 1% of total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2014 to almost 20% in 2050. In a scenario that is consistent with the 2 deg C maximum increase, oil reduces its share from 31% to 23%, while gas remains at around 20% of TPES.

But this energy emission reduction “will require immediate and co-ordinated global action,” it said in its annual Energy Perspectives report June 8. “We should not underestimate the needed transformation, both in terms of energy efficiency improvements, fuel mix changes and modified consumer behaviour. Unfortunately, many factors today work against such a transformation,” writes the author, Statoil’s chief economist Eirik Waerness.

It describes three different scenarios for global macroeconomic development, energy demand, energy mix, and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and extends the forecast period to 2050.

In common with earlier reports, it contains three different scenarios about the future, building on different sets of assumptions:

• Reform: The starting point is the national climate commitments of the Paris agreement (COP 21). It gradually puts more weight on market-driven developments in global energy markets, with policies playing a supportive role.
• Renewal: An ambitious and very challenging back-casted scenario delivering a trajectory for energy-related emissions consistent with the 2degC target. This will require unprecedented global co-operation on policies and regulations, and on technology development related to energy supply and demand.
• Rivalry: A future which is impacted by geopolitical and economic conflict and larger differences between regions, both with regards to economic development and transformation of the energy systems.

All scenarios assume global population growth, economic growth and so a bigger middle class worldwide. Demand for products, services, and activities that require energy is therefore increasing.

“Failing to transform the world’s energy systems will have negative effects across the globe and for all parts of society. We support a development where the world moves in a sustainable direction where climate change targets are met along with other important sustainable development goals as set out by the UN,” says Statoil’s CEO Eldar Saetre.

The report may be found here.

William Powell